It's still early days, but the southwest monsoon has been nearly 37 per cent 'below normal' in the first seven days (June 1-7) of this month. According to the data furnished by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), between June 1 and June 7, India received 14.5 millimetres (mm) of rainfall, against a 'normal' 23.1 mm. Among places where rains have arrived, monsoon in Kerala in the first seven days has been 48 per cent 'below normal', while in Puducherry, it has been 56 per cent 'above normal'. In Tamil Nadu, rains were 21 per cent 'above normal' between June 1 and June 7.
The four-month monsoon season from June to September accounts for 75 per cent of rainfall in the country.
It rained in the periphery of Delhi -- Aligarh in Uttar Pradesh and Karnal in Haryana -- but clouds hovered over the national capital, without giving any relief from the heat.
The southwest monsoon might finally start withdrawing from parts of North-West India over the next three days, signaling the end of its four-month journey over the country that started in June, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. However, though the retreat might begin from next week, the rains might not descend quickly, as the met department predicted fresh spells of rains in Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and east MP on September 21-22 and over Odisha, Coastal areas north Andhra Pradesh and Gangetic West Bengal on September 19-21. "Due to anti-cyclonic flows over northwest India at lower tropospheric levels, dry weather is very likely over west Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi during the next five days. "Hence conditions are becoming favourable for the withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from parts of northwest India during next three days," the IMD said.
Weather scientists attribute the early onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala to the influence of the remnants of cyclone Asani that triggered the cross-equatorial flow, a key factor for the seasonal rains.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted above-normal rainfall across India in June, with most parts of the country likely to experience normal to below-normal maximum temperatures. The IMD also anticipates above-normal minimum temperatures across most of the country, except for some parts of central India and the adjoining south peninsula. The southwest monsoon reached Kerala on May 24, marking its earliest arrival over the Indian mainland since 2009. The monsoon is crucial for India's agriculture-dependent economy, providing vital water for crops and supporting drinking water and hydropower generation.
Though early days, meteorologists point towards a neutral La Nina during the initial phase of the four-month monsoon season this year that starts from June. If this holds true, by the time the rains hit the mainland, it could mean there would be one less reason to worry about the prospects of the monsoon this year. Weathermen said making any accurate prediction of how El Nino will behave and what impact it can have on the progress and distribution of rains is difficult to say at this point. A clear picture will emerge around late May or early June.
The south-west monsoon on Tuesday started withdrawing from parts of south-west Rajasthan and adjoining Kutch in Gujarat, with at least eight states, including rice bowl states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar reporting deficient rains. It was for the first time since 2016 that the monsoon started withdrawing in the third week of September. "Southwest monsoon has withdrawn from parts of southwest Rajasthan & adjoining Kutch today, against its normal date of withdrawal from southwest Rajasthan of September 17," the India Meteorological Department (IMD) tweeted.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted above-normal rainfall for the upcoming monsoon season in India (June to September). The cumulative rainfall is estimated to be 105 percent of the long-period average. The IMD has also ruled out the possibility of El Nino conditions during the entire season. The monsoon is crucial for India's agriculture sector, which supports the livelihood of a significant portion of the population and contributes substantially to the country's GDP. However, while the prediction of normal rainfall brings relief, climate change is expected to cause variations in rainfall distribution.
Delhi Police have arrested another suspect in connection with the killing of a 26-year-old man during a clash between two families in Uttam Nagar on Holi. A total of seven people have been arrested and a minor apprehended. Stringent provisions of the SC/ST Act have been invoked.
Gross Value Added (GVA) growth in agriculture and allied activities in the first quarter of the 2024-25 financial year (Q1FY25) dipped to 2.7 per cent at constant prices from 4.2 per cent in Q1FY24 due to a drop in output of some crops following heatwave in the main growing months. Low post-monsoon rains, which dried most of the reservoirs in several states across the country, also impacted the production of many crops. At current prices, the growth was estimated at 8.5 per cent as against 4.1 per cent in Q1FY24 due to a spike in food inflation during the April to June months of FY25.
This should augur well for the rabi crops as delayed withdrawal will leave enough moisture in the soil for early sowing.
The India Meteorological Department said the southwest monsoon further advanced into Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmiri, some parts of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan on June 30.
Expected to be over 100% of long average period.
The southwest monsoon, a lifeline to millions of farmers of the country, on Saturday set in over Kerala, two days late than earlier forecast. The monsoon has set in over Kerala, IMD Director B P Yadav said.
The southwest monsoon season concluded on Saturday with India receiving 'below-average' cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in an El Nino year.
The early onset of the southwest monsoon brought continuous rainfall across southern and eastern India, contributing to this record.
This would be due to early monsoon onset, abundant precipitation in the soil and the government's higher minimum support price (MSP) for farmers, the USDA said in its assessment.
Conditions are becoming favourable for advance of southwest monsoon over the southern part of Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal during May 18-19, the IMD said.
Southwest monsoon has furthered advanced into some parts of south Arabian Sea
With the cooling down of heatwaves as the monsoon spreads across the country, power demand has fallen by 12.5 per cent from the start of this month till Monday. Peak power demand of the country had touched a record of 210 Gw last week, mostly due to rising temperatures and opening up of the economy. Compared with the beginning of this month, almost all states have seen a fall in power demand. Punjab, however, is an exception where the power demand on Monday was 17 per cent higher than on June 1.
Southwest monsoon hit Kerala on Friday marking the start of the rainy season, four days after its normal onset date.
The Met department had earlier forecast the onset of monsoon over Kerala on May 24, over a week ahead of its scheduled arrival on June 1.
IMD Director General M Mohapatra said there is cyclonic circulation along the Karnataka coast which is hindering the progress of the southwest monsoon.
The southwest monsoon is likely to hit the Kerala coast around June 1, well within its normal date of arrival, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
Steady progress in June; north and central regions to get good pre-showers
El Nino is often associated with below average warmer, dry weather across Asia Pacific region.
The central and western parts of India, which form the core monsoon zone, may face challenges in coping with the drying effects due to inadequate rainfall early in the season, Skymet Weather said.
Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and Gujarat, have been left out, despite a strong start to the monsoon in June
The IMD has forecast heavy rainfall in some parts of the state in next 48 hours. "The southwest monsoon has arrived in Maharashtra. The onset line is passing over Harnai, Solapur, Ramagundum (Telangana) and Jagdalpur (Chhattisgarh)," IMD Mumbai centre's deputy director general K S Hosalikar said.
Various parts of Surat were flooded after incessant rainfall in the region. Over 100 mm of rain has blocked roads and led to waterlogging in several low-lying areas.
Cyclone 'Biparjoy', the first storm brewing in the Arabian Sea this year, has rapidly intensified into a severe cyclonic storm, with meteorologists predicting a 'mild' monsoon onset over Kerala and 'weak' progress beyond southern peninsular under its influence.
Many parts of the country have received good rainfall and others, including the capital where the monsoon has not moved in so far, woke up to pre-monsoon showers on Wednesday.
The IMD issued a "Nowcast" warning, forecasting thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and intense spells of rain with gusty winds reaching 50-60 kmph at isolated places in Mumbai in the next three to four hours.
Monsoon revival over weekend likely, but second-half rainfall may be muted. If the rains become scarce after mid-August, the standing kharif crops might be impacted
IMD will present its month-wise and region-wise forecast in June.
Delhi is preparing for its first artificial rain through cloud seeding to combat air pollution. A trial run was successful, and the first rainfall is expected on October 29 if weather conditions are favorable.
Conditions are becoming favourable for onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala during next two to three days, according to India Meteorological Department in Pune.
Monsoon will hit Kerala between May 28 and 30, two-three days before its normal onset date of June 1, private forecasting agency Skymet said.
With conditions not favouring its progress, southwest monsoon is expected to hit the Kerala coast by June 4, three days after its normal onset date, the MET department has said.
